The retail analysts at NPD just finished compiling their sales data for last December and their overall analysis of 2012 as a whole, and the numbers confirm what we already knew: 2012 was a bad year to be in the games industry.
From the very beginning, 2012 was a period of decline for the entire games industry. Both hardware and software sales are down when compared to 2011, and this year saw an unfortunately high number of studio closures and layoffs. THQ went bankrupt, Sony sunk even deeper into the debt that they’ve been building up for the last four years, and even the usually fiscally responsible Nintendo had a hard time turning a profit this year. The 360 dominated hardware sales for most of the year, but that may be an empty victory when you consider how much hardware sales plummeted this year: as a whole, the industry sold 20% less hardware this year than in the year previous.
2012 played host to the launch of two major gaming systems: Sony’s Playstation Vita earlier in the year and Nintendo’s Wii U this Fall. While most people assumed that the Vita and its console-quality hardware would be a slam dunk, it’s been anything but a hit for Sony, and their CEO Kaz Hirai admitted this week that the system’s sales have been “on the low end of expectations.” The original PSP was mostly popular in Japan, and it only succeeded there thanks to the break out popularity of Capcom’s Monster Hunter franchise: now that that series has jumped ship to Nintendo, it seems like Sony is having a hard time convincing both game developers and consumers that there’s a future for the Vita. Of course, Sony can still turn things around: the 3DS was in a similarly dire situation in its first few months, and now it’s selling well enough to at least guarantee a full five year life cycle.
Meanwhile, it’s still a bit too early to make a prediction as to how Nintendo’s risky Wii U will pan out: while the Wii U hasn’t become the instant pop-culture phenomenon that the original Wii was, it’s still managed to sell relatively well, and has so far outpaced the Xbox 360 and PS3’s launch numbers. Still, opinions of the system have been mixed (everyone is still mad about that ridiculous day one patch,) and new releases for the system this winter and spring seem few and far between. As with the 3DS, Nintendo is going to have to pump out some of their big franchises and secure some third party exclusives if they want the Wii U to be anything more than a fad, and they’re going to need to make one hell of an impressive show at this year’s E3 if they want to stand out against the apparently substantially more powerful consoles that Sony and Microsoft are cooking up. Here’s a free hint to Nintendo: new Smash Bros. and a new Zelda, ASAP.
While people generally bought less games in 2012 than in previous years, it seems like most gamers took the safe route and decided to buy sequels like Halo 4, Call of Duty: Black Ops 2, and Assassin’s Creed 3 rather than take a chance on new IP’s. Of course, a few new IP’s, like Bethesda and Arkane Studio’s Dishonored managed to succeed despite the lack of a number at the end of its title, but for the most part, it was a bad year for anything but the biggest triple-A sequels. In case you don’t believe me, here’s the full list of the top 10 best-selling titles from 2012, and all of them are either sequels or annualized sports games:
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
- Madden NFL 13
- Halo 4
- Assassin’s Creed 3
- Just Dance 4
- NBA 2K13
- Borderlands 2
- Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 3
- Lego Batman 2: DC Super Heroes
- FIFA Soccer 13
And just in case you were curious, here’s the top 10 for December 2012, which is similarly made up entirely of sequels and yearly sports franchises:
- Call of Duty: Black Ops 2
- Just Dance 4
- Halo 4
- Assassin’s Creed 3
- Madden NFL 13
- Far Cry 3 (360, PS3, PC)
- NBA 2K13
- Skylander Giants
- New Super Mario Bros. 2
- Fifa Soccer
Still, despite the sharp decline in sales, a lot of people in the industry are still optimistic that 2013 will be a good year for games: with Sony and Microsoft both set to unveil (and probably launch) their new systems before the end of the year, as well as the possibility that the Wii U may hit its stride following its post-launch drought, many analysts are confident that a renewed console cycle will be enough to pull the industry out of the rut that it’s been stuck in for the last year or two.
As for what we can look forward to this month, January marks the release of the Sega and Platinum Games’ budget priced brawler, Anarchy Reigns, as well as Capcom’s divisive Devil May Cry reboot, DmC. Both of these games are risky projects (for different reasons,) and while January is a relatively quiet month in terms of new releases, it’ll be interesting to see if gamers take a chance on these two games or if they’d rather still stick to the higher profile releases from the holiday season.
